The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than markets expect, with growing signs pointing to the July 30 FOMC meeting. While traders have largely been pricing in a September rate cut, recent comments from top Fed officials are shifting sentiment.
Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman stated on Monday that she would support a rate cut in July if inflation remains under control. Speaking in Prague, Bowman noted that bringing the policy rate closer to its neutral setting could help sustain the U.S. labor market. Her remarks align with those of Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who also said last week that if inflation continues to ease, a July rate cut would be on the table.
“If inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting,” Bowman reiterated in a CNBC interview.
Markets are already reacting to the Fed's dovish tone. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the odds of a 25-basis-point cut in July have jumped to 23.5%, up from 15% just days earlier.
A rate cut would be politically favorable for President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being too slow to lower rates. Over the weekend, Trump posted that Powell could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion in interest payments annually if he acted faster. Frustrated with Powell’s cautious approach, Trump hinted he may reconsider firing him, adding, “Nice and neutral didn’t work!”
With inflation easing and pressure mounting from both markets and the White House, the likelihood of a summer rate cut is gaining momentum. All eyes are now on July’s inflation data and the Fed’s next move.