With the UK heading for an election on July 4, it can feel like the result is pre-ordained. Labour has maintained a decisive poll lead for over a year and nothing Rishi Sunak does appears to shift the dial.
But below the surface, much remains at stake in this six-week campaign.
For a start, there is no possible result in this contest that couldn’t be described as monumental. Should Keir Starmer win, he would have pulled off the most astonishing electoral turnaround in living memory and return Labour to power for the first time in 14 years. Should Rishi Sunak win, he’d practically be defying gravity.
In Scotland, the SNP’s dominance could be about to be turned into total wipeout. In Wales, boundary changes have dramatically redrawn the electoral map. In Northern Ireland, the DUP is entering its first truly post-Brexit election in a state of crisis following the arrest of its now-former leader – just as Sinn Féin is surging.
So, Labour’s huge poll lead is really just one part of the story.
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